Design of hybrid differential evolution and group method of data handling networks for modeling and prediction

This paper proposes a hybrid modeling approach based on two familiar non-linear methods of mathematical modeling; the group method of data handling (GMDH) and differential evolution (DE) population-based algorithm. The proposed method constructs a GMDH self-organizing network model of a population of promising DE solutions. The new hybrid implementation is then applied to modeling tool wear in milling operations and also applied to two representative time series prediction problems of exchange rates of three international currencies and the well-studied Box-Jenkins gas furnace process data. The results of the proposed DE-GMDH approach are compared with the results obtained by the standard GMDH algorithm and its variants. Results presented show that the proposed DE-GMDH algorithm appears to perform better than the standard GMDH algorithm and the polynomial neural network (PNN) model for the tool wear problem. For the exchange rate problem, the results of the proposed DE-GMDH algorithm are competitive with all other approaches except in one case. For the Box-Jenkins gas furnace data, the experimental results clearly demonstrates that the proposed DE-GMDH-type network outperforms the existing models both in terms of better approximation capabilities as well as generalization abilities. Consequently, this self-organizing modeling approach may be useful in modeling advanced manufacturing systems where it is necessary to model tool wear during machining operations, and in time series applications such as in prediction of time series exchange rate and industrial gas furnace problems.