The Quest for an Improved Dialog Between Modeler and Experimentalist

Multi -criteria calibration of runoff models using additional data, such as groundwater levels or soil moisture, has been proposed as a way to constrain parameter values and to ensure the realistic simulation of internal varables. Nevertheless, in many cases the availabilty of such ' hard data' is limited. We argue that experimentalists working in a catchment often have much more knowledge of catchment behavior than is currently used for model calibration and testing. Whle potentially highly useful, this information is difficult to use directly as exact numbers in the calibration process. We present a framework whereby these 'soft' data from the experimentalist are made useful though fuzzy measures of model-simulation and parameter-value acceptabilty. The use of soft data is an approach to formalize the exchange of information and calibration measures between experimentalst and modeler. Ths dialog may also greatly augment the traditional and few 'hard' data measures available. We ilustrate the value of 'soft data' with the application of a thee-box conceptual model for the Maimai catchment in New Zealand. The model was calibrated against hard data (runoff and groundwater-levels) as well as a number of criteria derived from the soft data (e. , percent new water, reservoir volume). Whle very good fits were obtained when calibrating against runoff only (model effciency = 0.93), parameter sets obtained in this way showed, in general, poor internal consistency. Inclusion of soft-data criteria in the model calibration process resulted in lower model-effciency values (around 0.84 when including all criteria) but led to better overall performance, as interpreted by the experimentalist' s view of catchment runoff dynamcs.

[1]  Jeffrey J. McDonnell,et al.  A rationale for old water discharge through macropores in a steep, humid catchment. , 1990 .

[2]  Jan Seibert,et al.  Estimation of Parameter Uncertainty in the HBV Model , 1997 .

[3]  Göran Lindström,et al.  A Simple Automatic Calibration Routine for the HBV Model , 1997 .

[4]  Jeffrey J. McDonnell,et al.  A new tool for hillslope hydrologists: spatially distributed groundwater level and soilwater content measured using electromagnetic induction , 2003 .

[5]  John H. Holland,et al.  Adaptation in Natural and Artificial Systems: An Introductory Analysis with Applications to Biology, Control, and Artificial Intelligence , 1992 .

[6]  J. McDonnell,et al.  Flow Pathways on Steep Forested Hillslopes: the Tracer, Tensiometer and Trough Approach , 1998 .

[7]  J. Seibert Multi-criteria calibration of a conceptual runoff model using a genetic algorithm , 2000 .

[8]  Richard P. Hooper,et al.  A multisignal automatic calibration methodology for hydrochemical models: A case study of the Birkenes Model , 1988 .

[9]  Q. J. Wang The Genetic Algorithm and Its Application to Calibrating Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models , 1991 .

[10]  M. Franchini Use of a genetic algorithm combined with a local search method for the automatic calibration of conceptual rainfall-runoff models , 1996 .

[11]  K. Beven,et al.  On constraining the predictions of a distributed model: The incorporation of fuzzy estimates of saturated areas into the calibration process , 1998 .

[12]  A. Pearce,et al.  Storm runoff generation in humid headwater catchments 1 , 1986 .

[13]  Nick A. Chappell,et al.  Effects of experimental uncertainty on the calculation of hillslope flow paths , 2000 .

[14]  H. Hemond,et al.  Naturally Occurring Radon 222 as a Tracer for Streamflow Generation: Steady State Methodology and Field Example , 1990 .

[15]  G. Kuczera Efficient subspace probabilistic parameter optimization for catchment models , 1997 .

[16]  J. Refsgaard Parameterisation, calibration and validation of distributed hydrological models , 1997 .

[17]  John H. Holland,et al.  Adaptation in Natural and Artificial Systems: An Introductory Analysis with Applications to Biology, Control, and Artificial Intelligence , 1992 .

[18]  S. Uhlenbrook,et al.  Natural tracers for Investigating residence times, runoff components and validation of a rainfall-runoff model , 2000 .

[19]  Ezio Todini,et al.  Modelling of rainfall, flow and mass transport in hydrological systems: an overview , 1996 .

[20]  B. G. Hankin,et al.  Modelling dispersion in complex open channel flows: Fuzzy calibration (2) , 1998 .

[21]  Keith Beven,et al.  Uncertainty and equifinality in calibrating distributed roughness coefficients in a flood propagation model with limited data , 1998 .

[22]  Axel Bronstert,et al.  Capabilities and limitations of detailed hillslope hydrological modelling , 1999 .

[23]  Keith Beven,et al.  On constraining TOPMODEL hydrograph simulations using partial saturated area information , 2002 .

[24]  Richard P. Hooper,et al.  Testing and validating environmental models , 1996 .

[25]  Kevin Bishop,et al.  Simulating interactions between saturated and unsaturated storage in a conceptual runoff model , 2003 .

[26]  George Kuczera,et al.  Assessment of hydrologic parameter uncertainty and the worth of multiresponse data , 1998 .

[27]  George M. Hornberger,et al.  RECENT ADVANCES IN WATERSHED MODELLING , 1995 .

[28]  S. Sorooshian,et al.  Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual rainfall‐runoff models , 1992 .

[29]  Keith Beven,et al.  Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling , 1993 .

[30]  Soroosh Sorooshian,et al.  Multi-objective global optimization for hydrologic models , 1998 .

[31]  K. Bevenb,et al.  Uncertainty and equifinality in calibrating distributed roughness coefficients in a flood propagation model with limited data , 1998 .

[32]  B. Ambroise,et al.  Multicriterion Validation of a Semidistributed Conceptual Model of the Water Cycle in the Fecht Catchment (Vosges Massif, France) , 1995 .

[33]  Keith Beven,et al.  Riparian control of stream-water chemistry: Implications for hydrochemical basin models , 1998 .

[34]  George Kuczera,et al.  The quest for more powerful validation of conceptual catchment models , 1997 .

[35]  Jan Seibert,et al.  Conceptual Runoff Models -- Fiction or Representation of Reality , 1999 .

[36]  Jeffrey J. McDonnell,et al.  Effect of Catchment‐Scale Subsurface Mixing on Stream Isotopic Response , 1991 .

[37]  K. Beven,et al.  Bayesian Estimation of Uncertainty in Runoff Prediction and the Value of Data: An Application of the GLUE Approach , 1996 .

[38]  Brian L. McGlynn,et al.  A review of the evolving perceptual model of hillslope flowpaths at the Maimai catchments, New Zealand , 2002 .

[39]  Jeffrey J. McDonnell,et al.  On the dialog between experimentalist and modeler in catchment hydrology: Use of soft data for multicriteria model calibration , 2002 .

[40]  J. Nash,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆ , 1970 .

[41]  M. Mosley Streamflow generation in a forested watershed, New Zealand , 1979 .

[42]  Richard P. Hooper,et al.  Assessing the Birkenes Model of stream acidification using a multisignal calibration methodology , 1988 .

[43]  Soroosh Sorooshian,et al.  Toward improved calibration of hydrologic models: Combining the strengths of manual and automatic methods , 2000 .