Towards Dynamic Demand Response On Efficient Consumer Grouping Algorithmics

The widespread monitoring of electricity consumption due to increasingly pervasive deployment of networked sensors in urban environments has resulted in an unprecedentedly large volume of data being collected. Particularly, with the emerging Smart Grid technologies becoming more ubiquitous, real-time and online analytics for discovering the underlying structure of increasing-dimensional (w.r.t. time) consumer time series data are crucial to convert the massive amount of fine-grained energy information gathered from residential smart meters into appropriate demand response (DR) insights. In this paper we propose READER and OPTIC, that are real-time and online algorithmic pre-processing frameworks respectively, for effective DR in the Smart Grid. READER (OPTIC) helps discover underlying structure from increasing-dimensional consumer consumption time series data in a provably optimal real-time (online) fashion. READER (OPTIC) catalyzes the efficacy of DR programs by systematically and efficiently managing the energy consumption data deluge, at the same time capturing in real-time (online), specific behavior, i.e., households or time instants with similar consumption patterns. The primary feature of READER (OPTIC) is a real-time (online) randomized approximation algorithm for grouping consumers based on their electricity consumption time series data, and provides two crucial benefits: (i) time efficiently tackles high volume, increasing-dimensional time series data and (ii) provides provable worst case grouping performance guarantees. We validate the grouping and DR efficacy of READER and OPTIC via extensive experiments conducted on both, a USC microgrid dataset as well as a synthetically generated dataset.

[1]  Yasuhiro Hayashi,et al.  A Versatile Clustering Method for Electricity Consumption Pattern Analysis in Households , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid.

[2]  Sarvapali D. Ramchurn,et al.  Putting the 'smarts' into the smart grid , 2012, Commun. ACM.

[3]  M. Inaba Application of weighted Voronoi diagrams and randomization to variance-based k-clustering , 1994, SoCG 1994.

[4]  Dimitrios Gunopulos,et al.  Iterative Incremental Clustering of Time Series , 2004, EDBT.

[5]  Dorit S. Hochbaum,et al.  Various notions of approximations: good, better, best, and more , 1996 .

[6]  Francisco Martinez Alvarez,et al.  Energy Time Series Forecasting Based on Pattern Sequence Similarity , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering.

[7]  Vijay Arya,et al.  Individual and Aggregate Electrical Load Forecasting: One for All and All for One , 2015, e-Energy.

[8]  Anna Choromanska,et al.  Online Clustering with Experts , 2012, AISTATS.

[9]  Angie King Online k-Means Clustering of Nonstationary Data , 2012 .

[10]  Tomás Feder,et al.  Optimal algorithms for approximate clustering , 1988, STOC '88.

[11]  Sergei Vassilvitskii,et al.  k-means++: the advantages of careful seeding , 2007, SODA '07.

[12]  David S. Johnson,et al.  Computers and Intractability: A Guide to the Theory of NP-Completeness , 1978 .

[13]  Sariel Har-Peled,et al.  On coresets for k-means and k-median clustering , 2004, STOC '04.

[14]  Qiang Fu,et al.  YADING: Fast Clustering of Large-Scale Time Series Data , 2015, Proc. VLDB Endow..

[15]  Viktor K. Prasanna,et al.  Challenge: On Online Time Series Clustering for Demand Response: Optic - A Theory to Break the 'Curse of Dimensionality' , 2015, e-Energy.

[16]  Yik-Chung Wu,et al.  Load/Price Forecasting and Managing Demand Response for Smart Grids: Methodologies and Challenges , 2012, IEEE Signal Processing Magazine.

[17]  Teofilo F. GONZALEZ,et al.  Clustering to Minimize the Maximum Intercluster Distance , 1985, Theor. Comput. Sci..

[18]  Marek Karpinski,et al.  Approximation schemes for clustering problems , 2003, STOC '03.

[19]  Feller William,et al.  An Introduction To Probability Theory And Its Applications , 1950 .

[20]  Rajeev Motwani,et al.  Incremental clustering and dynamic information retrieval , 1997, STOC '97.

[21]  Eamonn J. Keogh,et al.  An indexing scheme for fast similarity search in large time series databases , 1999, Proceedings. Eleventh International Conference on Scientific and Statistical Database Management.

[22]  S. L. HAKIMIt AN ALGORITHMIC APPROACH TO NETWORK LOCATION PROBLEMS. , 1979 .

[23]  S. P. Lloyd,et al.  Least squares quantization in PCM , 1982, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory.

[24]  Yingying Li,et al.  Research on incremental clustering , 2012, 2012 2nd International Conference on Consumer Electronics, Communications and Networks (CECNet).

[25]  D. Eppstein,et al.  Approximation algorithms for geometric problems , 1996 .

[26]  G. Chicco,et al.  Comparisons among clustering techniques for electricity customer classification , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[27]  J. Matou On Approximate Geometric K-clustering , 1999 .

[28]  Xinghuo Yu,et al.  The New Frontier of Smart Grids , 2011, IEEE Industrial Electronics Magazine.

[29]  Hesham K. Alfares,et al.  Electric load forecasting: Literature survey and classification of methods , 2002, Int. J. Syst. Sci..

[30]  David M. Mount,et al.  A local search approximation algorithm for k-means clustering , 2002, SCG '02.

[31]  Eamonn J. Keogh,et al.  Time series shapelets: a novel technique that allows accurate, interpretable and fast classification , 2010, Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery.

[32]  Nir Ailon,et al.  Streaming k-means approximation , 2009, NIPS.

[33]  Eamonn J. Keogh,et al.  Fast Shapelets: A Scalable Algorithm for Discovering Time Series Shapelets , 2013, SDM.

[34]  Hans W. Guesgen,et al.  Unsupervised Learning of Human Behaviours , 2011, AAAI.

[35]  C. Senabre,et al.  Classification, Filtering, and Identification of Electrical Customer Load Patterns Through the Use of Self-Organizing Maps , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[36]  Alan M. Frieze,et al.  Clustering Large Graphs via the Singular Value Decomposition , 2004, Machine Learning.

[37]  N.D. Hatziargyriou,et al.  Two-Stage Pattern Recognition of Load Curves for Classification of Electricity Customers , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[38]  Sudipto Guha,et al.  Clustering Data Streams: Theory and Practice , 2003, IEEE Trans. Knowl. Data Eng..

[39]  T. Warren Liao,et al.  Clustering of time series data - a survey , 2005, Pattern Recognit..

[40]  Ram Rajagopal,et al.  Utility customer segmentation based on smart meter data: Empirical study , 2013, 2013 IEEE International Conference on Smart Grid Communications (SmartGridComm).

[41]  Ram Rajagopal,et al.  Household Energy Consumption Segmentation Using Hourly Data , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid.

[42]  Satish Rao,et al.  Learning Mixtures of Product Distributions Using Correlations and Independence , 2008, COLT.

[43]  Michael McGill,et al.  Introduction to Modern Information Retrieval , 1983 .

[44]  Eamonn J. Keogh,et al.  Exact Discovery of Time Series Motifs , 2009, SDM.

[45]  Viktor K. Prasanna,et al.  Accurate and efficient selection of the best consumption prediction method in smart grids , 2014, 2014 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data).

[46]  Pavel Berkhin,et al.  A Survey of Clustering Data Mining Techniques , 2006, Grouping Multidimensional Data.

[47]  P. Postolache,et al.  Load pattern-based classification of electricity customers , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[48]  Olatz Arbelaitz,et al.  An extensive comparative study of cluster validity indices , 2013, Pattern Recognit..

[49]  Eamonn J. Keogh,et al.  Logical-shapelets: an expressive primitive for time series classification , 2011, KDD.

[50]  Steven J. Moss,et al.  Market Segmentation and Energy Efficiency Program Design , 2008 .

[51]  Mary Inaba,et al.  Applications of weighted Voronoi diagrams and randomization to variance-based k-clustering: (extended abstract) , 1994, SCG '94.

[52]  Juan Shishido,et al.  Smart Meter Data Quality Insights , 2012 .

[53]  Viktor K. Prasanna,et al.  Extracting discriminative shapelets from heterogeneous sensor data , 2014, 2014 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data).

[54]  Johanna L. Mathieu,et al.  Variability in automated responses of commercial buildings and industrial facilities to dynamic elec , 2011 .

[55]  Shai Ben-David,et al.  Relating Clustering Stability to Properties of Cluster Boundaries , 2008, COLT.

[56]  Peter Willett,et al.  Recent trends in hierarchic document clustering: A critical review , 1988, Inf. Process. Manag..

[57]  C. Greg Plaxton,et al.  Optimal Time Bounds for Approximate Clustering , 2002, Machine Learning.

[58]  Yogesh L. Simmhan,et al.  Scalable prediction of energy consumption using incremental time series clustering , 2013, 2013 IEEE International Conference on Big Data.