Forecasting sports tournaments by ratings of (prob)abilities: A comparison for the EURO 2008

Different methods for assessing the abilities of participants in a sports tournament, and their corresponding winning probabilities for the tournament, are embedded in a common framework and their predictive performances compared. First, ratings of abilities (such as the Elo rating) are complemented with a simulation approach which yields winning probabilities for the full tournament. Second, tournament winning probabilities are extracted from bookmakers' odds using a consensus model, and the underlying abilities of the competitors are then derived by an "inverse" application of the tournament simulation. Both techniques are employed for forecasting the results of the European football championship 2008 (UEFA EURO 2008), for which the consensus model based on bookmakers' odds outperforms methods based on both the Elo rating and the FIFA/Coca Cola World rating. Moreover, the bookmaker consensus model correctly predicts that the final will be played by the teams from Germany and Spain (with a probability of about 20.5%), while showing that both finalists profit from being drawn in groups with relatively weak competitors.

[1]  Raymond T. Stefani,et al.  Survey of the major world sports rating systems , 1997 .

[2]  Stephen R. Clarke,et al.  Home ground advantage of individual clubs in English soccer , 1995 .

[3]  H. Stekler,et al.  Is there a consensus among financial forecasters , 1996 .

[4]  Achim Zeileis,et al.  Who is Going to Win the EURO 2008? A Statistical Investigation of Bookmakers Odds. , 2008 .

[5]  D. Bates,et al.  Mixed-Effects Models in S and S-PLUS , 2001 .

[6]  Herman Stekler,et al.  Do consensus forecasts exist , 1991 .

[7]  Ian G. McHale,et al.  Statistical analysis of the effectiveness of the FIFA World Rankings , 2007 .

[8]  Stefani Ray,et al.  Football Rating Systems for Top-Level Competition: A Critical Survey , 2007 .

[9]  Lee Sigelman,et al.  The forecasting accuracy and determinants of football rankings , 2001 .

[10]  Herman Stekler,et al.  The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games , 2007 .

[11]  Kurt Hornik,et al.  Bookmaker consensus and agreement for the UEFA Champions League 2008/2009 , 2011 .

[12]  David Dyte,et al.  A ratings based Poisson model for World Cup soccer simulation , 2000, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[13]  H. Stekler,et al.  P redicting the outcomes of National Football League games , 2003 .

[14]  Zetou Eleni,et al.  Does Effectiveness of Skill in Complex I Predict Win in Men's Olympic Volleyball Games? , 2007 .

[15]  R. A. Bradley,et al.  Rank Analysis of Incomplete Block Designs: I. The Method of Paired Comparisons , 1952 .

[16]  K. Hornik,et al.  Forecasting the winner of the UEFA Champions League 2008 / 09 , 2009 .

[17]  Raphael N. Markellos,et al.  How Efficient is the European Football Betting Market? Evidence from Arbitrage and Trading Strategies , 2009 .

[18]  A. Elo.  The rating of chessplayers, past and present , 1978 .

[19]  John Goddard,et al.  Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed‐odds betting , 2004 .

[20]  D. Peel,et al.  Information, Prices and Efficiency in a Fixed-Odds Betting Market , 1989 .

[21]  Herman Stekler,et al.  Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation , 1999 .

[22]  Robert Simmons,et al.  Odds setters as forecasters: the case of English football , 2005 .

[23]  Alex Edmans,et al.  Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns , 2006 .

[24]  Philip Scarf,et al.  Optimal Design of Sporting Contests The Optimal Design of Sporting Contests , 2006 .

[25]  H. A. David,et al.  The method of paired comparisons , 1966 .

[26]  S. Coles,et al.  Modelling Association Football Scores and Inefficiencies in the Football Betting Market , 1997 .

[27]  John Goddard,et al.  Modelling football match results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting , 2003 .

[28]  Mark J. Dixon,et al.  The value of statistical forecasts in the UK association football betting market , 2004 .

[29]  Herman Stekler,et al.  Measuring consensus in binary forecasts: NFL game predictions , 2009 .

[30]  Robert Simmons,et al.  Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters , 2000 .

[31]  R. A. Bradley,et al.  RANK ANALYSIS OF INCOMPLETE BLOCK DESIGNS , 1952 .

[32]  R. A. Bradley,et al.  RANK ANALYSIS OF INCOMPLETE BLOCK DESIGNS THE METHOD OF PAIRED COMPARISONS , 1952 .

[33]  M. Maher.  Modelling association football scores , 1982 .

[34]  Rating systems based on paired comparison models , 1991 .

[35]  Ruud H. Koning,et al.  Statistical thinking in sports , 2007 .

[36]  Martin Spann,et al.  Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters , 2009 .

[37]  R. J. Henery.  Measures of over-round in performance index betting , 1999 .

[38]  R. Simmons,et al.  Home advantage and the debate about competitive balance in professional sports leagues , 2005, Journal of sports sciences.