Modeling the effects of prior infection on vaccine efficacy

We performed computer simulations to study the effects of prior infection on vaccine efficacy. We injected three antigens sequentially. The first antigen, designated the prior, represented a prior infection or vaccination. The second antigen, the vaccine, represented a single component of the trivalent influenza vaccine. The third antigen, the epidemic, represented challenge by an epidemic strain. For a fixed vaccine to epidemic strain cross-reactivity, we generated prior strains over a full range of cross-reactivities to the vaccine and to the epidemic strains. We found that, for many cross-reactivities, vaccination, when it had been preceded by a prior infection, provided more protection than vaccination alone. However, at some cross-reactivities, the prior infection reduced protection by clearing the vaccine before it had the chance to produce protective memory. The cross-reactivities between the prior, vaccine and epidemic strains played a major role in determining vaccine efficacy. This work has applications to understanding vaccination against viruses such as influenza that are continually mutating.