Big data modeling to predict platelet usage and minimize wastage in a tertiary care system

Significance In modern hospital systems where complicated, severely ill patient populations are the norm, there is currently no reliable way to forecast the use of perishable medical resources to enable a smart and economic way to deliver optimal patient care. We here demonstrate a statistical model using hospital patient data to quantitatively forecast, days in advance, the need for platelet transfusions. This approach can be leveraged to significantly decrease platelet wastage, and, if adopted nationwide, would save approximately 80 million dollars per year. We believe our approach can be generalized to all other aspects of patient care involving timely delivery of perishable medical resources. Maintaining a robust blood product supply is an essential requirement to guarantee optimal patient care in modern health care systems. However, daily blood product use is difficult to anticipate. Platelet products are the most variable in daily usage, have short shelf lives, and are also the most expensive to produce, test, and store. Due to the combination of absolute need, uncertain daily demand, and short shelf life, platelet products are frequently wasted due to expiration. Our aim is to build and validate a statistical model to forecast future platelet demand and thereby reduce wastage. We have investigated platelet usage patterns at our institution, and specifically interrogated the relationship between platelet usage and aggregated hospital-wide patient data over a recent consecutive 29-mo period. Using a convex statistical formulation, we have found that platelet usage is highly dependent on weekday/weekend pattern, number of patients with various abnormal complete blood count measurements, and location-specific hospital census data. We incorporated these relationships in a mathematical model to guide collection and ordering strategy. This model minimizes waste due to expiration while avoiding shortages; the number of remaining platelet units at the end of any day stays above 10 in our model during the same period. Compared with historical expiration rates during the same period, our model reduces the expiration rate from 10.5 to 3.2%. Extrapolating our results to the ∼2 million units of platelets transfused annually within the United States, if implemented successfully, our model can potentially save ∼80 million dollars in health care costs.