Regret-Optimal Filtering

We consider the problem of filtering in linear state-space models (e.g., the Kalman filter setting) through the lens of regret optimization. Specifically, we study the problem of causally estimating a desired signal, generated by a linear state-space model driven by process noise, based on noisy observations of a related observation process. We define a novel regret criterion for estimator design as the difference of the estimation error energies between a clairvoyant estimator that has access to all future observations (a socalled smoother) and a causal one that only has access to current and past observations. The regret-optimal estimator is the causal estimator that minimizes the worst-case regret across all bounded-energy noise sequences. We provide a solution for the regret filtering problem at two levels. First, an horizonindependent solution at the operator level is obtained by reducing the regret to the wellknown Nehari problem. Secondly, our main result for state-space models is an explicit estimator that achieves the optimal regret. The regret-optimal estimator is represented as a finite-dimensional state-space whose parameters can be computed by solving three Riccati equations and a single Lyapunov equation. We demonstrate the applicability and efficacy of the estimator in a variety of problems and observe that the estimator has average and worst-case performances that are simultaneously close to their optimal values. The authors are with the Department of Electrical Engineering at Caltech, e-mails: {oron,hassibi}@caltech.edu. Proceedings of the 24 International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 2021, San Diego, California, USA. PMLR: Volume 130. Copyright 2021 by the author(s).