Do Plans Matter? A Game-Theoretic Model for Examining the Logic and Effects of Land Use Planning

Although state and local growth management programs vary widely, nearly all such programs include one common feature: they require local governments to plan. While there has been extensive research on the effects of growth management in general and on specific policy instruments to manage urban growth there has been little research on the effects of planning. In this paper we present a game-theoretic model of urban development in which a rational local government plans. The model illustrates how planning can serve to guide local government decision making, how land market participants might respond to local government plans, and how planning in a dynamic context can increase social welfare. By considering local government as a player who plans rather than as an external disturbance that might regulate, we can discover insights and frame hypotheses about the efficacy of planning that are not possible in other urban economic models.

[1]  R. Burby,et al.  Mandates, Plans, and Planners: Building Local Commitment to Development Management , 1994 .

[2]  Robert B. Olshansky,et al.  The California Environmental Quality Act and Local Planning , 1996 .

[3]  Emily Talen,et al.  Do Plans Get Implemented? A Review of Evaluation in Planning , 1996 .

[4]  J. Mcloughlin.  Urban and regional planning: A systems approach , 1969 .

[5]  P. Berke,et al.  The Influence of State Planning Mandates on Local Plan Quality , 1994 .

[6]  Michael D. Intriligator,et al.  Social choice and public decision making: Toward a theory of planning , 1986 .

[7]  David E. Mills.  Growth, speculation and sprawl in a monocentric city☆ , 1981 .

[8]  U. Wannop,et al.  The Urban General Plan , 1992 .

[9]  Philip Bromiley,et al.  Influences of Context and Process on Project Planning Success , 1990 .

[10]  Donald A. Krueckeberg.  Variations in Behavior of Planning Agencies , 1971 .

[11]  Rachelle Alterman,et al.  Implementation of Urban Land Use Plans , 1978 .

[12]  Yu-Chi Ho,et al.  Mathematical optimization and economic theory , 1972 .

[13]  John F. McDonald,et al.  The effect of anticipated transportation improvement on residential land values , 1995 .

[14]  H W Calkins,et al.  The Planning Monitor: An Accountability Theory of Plan Evaluation , 1979 .

[15]  W. Wheaton,et al.  Urban residential growth under perfect foresight , 1982 .

[16]  Eva Lerner-Lam,et al.  RESPONSE OF URBAN REAL ESTATE VALUES IN ANTICIPATION OF THE WASHINGTON METRO , 1980 .

[17]  R. Arnott.  A simple urban growth model with durable housing , 1980 .

[18]  R Sharpe,et al.  Urban land use planning , 1988 .

[19]  Andrejs Skaburskis,et al.  Resisting the Allure of Large Projection Models , 1995 .

[20]  Glen Bramley,et al.  The Impact of Land Use Planning and Tax Subsidies on the Supply and Price of Housing in Britain , 1993 .

[21]  Alex Anas,et al.  Dynamics of urban residential growth , 1978 .

[22]  R. Ellson,et al.  Zoning uncertainty and the urban land development firm , 1987 .

[23]  G. Knaap.  State Land Use Planning and Inclusionary Zoning: Evidence from Oregon , 1990 .

[24]  Robert W. Helsley,et al.  The stochastic city , 1990 .

[25]  Lewis D. Hopkins,et al.  Behavior of Land Developers: Planning and the Economics of Information , 1987 .