The Gambler's Ruin Problem, Genetic Algorithms, and the Sizing of Populations

The paper presents a model for predicting the convergence quality of genetic algorithms. The model incorporates previous knowledge about decision making in genetic algorithms and the initial supply of building blocks in a novel way. The result is an equation that accurately predicts the quality of the solution found by a GA using a given population size. Adjustments for different selection intensities are considered and computational experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the model.

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