Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds

The purpose of this article is to explain the spread between spot rates on corporate and government bonds. We find that the spread can be explained in terms of three elements: (1) compensation for expected default of corporate bonds (2) compensation for state taxes since holders of corporate bonds pay state taxes while holders of government bonds do not, and (3) compensation for the additional systematic risk in corporate bond returns relative to government bond returns. The systematic nature of corporate bond return is shown by relating that part of the spread which is not due to expected default or taxes to a set of variables which have been shown to effect risk premiums in stock markets Empirical estimates of the size of each of these three components are provided in the paper. We stress the tax effects because it has been ignored in all previous studies of corporate bonds.

[1]  Martin D.D. Evans,et al.  Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia? , 1995 .

[2]  D. Duffie,et al.  Swap Rates and Credit Quality , 1996 .

[3]  G. Duffee The relation between Treasury yields and corporate bond yield spreads , 1998 .

[4]  D. Duffie,et al.  Modeling term structures of defaultable bonds , 1999 .

[5]  Donald B. Keim,et al.  Returns and Volatility of Low-Grade Bonds 1977–1989 , 1991 .

[6]  Understanding Aggregate Default Rates of High-Yield Bonds , 1997 .

[7]  On Cox Processes And Credit Risky Bonds , 1999 .

[8]  D. Duffie,et al.  An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields , 1997 .

[9]  R. Green,et al.  Are There Tax Effects in the Relative Pricing of U.S. Government Bonds , 1997 .

[10]  G. Maddala,et al.  Economic factors and the stock market: a new perspective , 1999 .

[11]  R. Cumby,et al.  The Term Structure of Credit Risk: Estimates and Specification Tests , 1995 .

[12]  J. McCulloch,et al.  Measuring the Term Structure of Interest Rates , 1971 .

[13]  Historical Default Rates of Corporate Bond Issuers, 1920-1998 , 1999 .

[14]  E. Altman Measuring Corporate Bond Mortality and Performance , 1989 .

[15]  M. J. P. Selby,et al.  The Pricing of Corporate Debt: A Further Note , 1983 .

[16]  The Valuation of Corporate Fixed Income Securities , 1992 .

[17]  Peter Tufano,et al.  Pricing Credit-Sensitive Debt When Interest Rates, Credit Ratings and Credit Spreads Are Stochastic , 1997 .

[18]  Roni Michaely,et al.  The Structure of Spot Rates and Immunization , 1990 .

[19]  L. Fisher Determinants of Risk Premiums on Corporate Bonds , 1959, Journal of Political Economy.

[20]  Defaults & Returns on High Yield Bonds: Analysis Through 1998 and Default Outlook for 1999-2001 , 1999 .

[21]  F. Black,et al.  The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities , 1973, Journal of Political Economy.

[22]  E. Fama,et al.  Term premiums and default premiums in money markets , 1986 .

[23]  Jerome S. Fons Using Default Rates to Model the Term Structure of Credit Risk , 1994 .

[24]  S. Ross,et al.  A theory of the term structure of interest rates'', Econometrica 53, 385-407 , 1985 .

[25]  E. Fama,et al.  Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds , 1993 .

[26]  E. Altman Rating Migration of Corporate Bonds: Comparative Results and Investor/Lender Implication , 1996 .

[27]  Common Factors in Mutual Fund Returns , 1997 .

[28]  K. Brown,et al.  An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Swap Spreads , 1994 .

[29]  Arthur D. Warga,et al.  Bond Price Data and Bond Market Liquidity , 1989, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[30]  E. Elton,et al.  Tax and Liquidity Effects in Pricing Government Bonds , 1997 .

[31]  E. Altman,et al.  Defaults and Returns on High Yield Bonds: Analysis Through 1994 , 1994 .

[32]  L. Goodman High–yield default rates , 1990 .

[33]  Lina El-Jahel,et al.  Valuation of Defaultable Bonds , 1998 .

[34]  Christopher R. Blake,et al.  COMMON FACTORS IN ACTIVE AND PASSIVE PORTFOLIOS , 1999 .

[35]  Ramon E. Johnson TERM STRUCTURES OF CORPORATE BOND YIELDS AS A FUNCTION OF RISK OF DEFAULT , 1967 .

[36]  Alan K. Severn,et al.  The corporate-treasury yield spread and state taxes , 1992 .

[37]  R. Jarrow,et al.  A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads , 1997 .

[38]  Bradford Cornell,et al.  The Investment Performance of Low‐grade Bond Funds , 1991 .

[39]  Jean Helwege,et al.  The slope of the credit yield curve for speculative-grade issuers , 1999 .

[40]  Robert B. Litterman,et al.  Common Factors Affecting Bond Returns , 1991 .

[41]  西野 嘉一郎,et al.  Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorkの制定せる財務諸表様式について , 1951 .

[42]  Lars E. O. Svensson,et al.  Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates for Monetary Policy Analysis , 1996 .

[43]  A. Siegel,et al.  Parsimonious modeling of yield curves , 1987 .

[44]  R. Geske The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options , 1977, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[45]  Lea V. Carty,et al.  Historical Default Rates of Corporate Bond Issuers, 1920 - 1996 , 1997 .

[46]  Gregory Connor,et al.  A Test for the Number of Factors in an Approximate Factor Model , 1993 .

[47]  E. Elton Expected return, realized return, and asset pricing tests , 1999 .